Little more than twenty-four hours after Prime Minister Mark Carney’s news conference on the failed Canada–U.S. trade negotiations, Canadians have spoken — and by a wide margin. (see full results of new poll at angusreid.org)
Seventy-six percent say they support the decision to exit the negotiations with the United States. In a country where consensus on almost anything is rare, this one is close to unanimous: the decision is backed by a clear majority in every single province.
Quebec: Washington’s own goal
Nowhere is support higher than in Quebec, where more than eight-in-ten endorse Ottawa’s decision to leave the table.
That finding deserves more than passing attention. Among the biggest own goals of the Washington negotiators — some of whom would be content to see Canada split apart — was the decision to press for restrictions on bilingual packaging for goods entering Canada. It was a demand that struck at something Quebecers are not inclined to trade away.
The fact that Carney and his colleagues ended the negotiations on several points, this one among them, puts significant wind in the sails of federalists in Quebec. A negotiating position intended to extract concessions instead handed Ottawa a unifying moment in the one province where national unity is never a settled question.
Dollar for dollar: appetite for retaliation
The consensus does not stop at walking away. There is also substantial support for Canada embarking on retaliatory measures on a dollar-for-dollar basis — and again, that support holds near-constant across the country.
Alberta is the clearest illustration. In a province that has historically been the most reluctant about picking fights with its largest customer, those in favour of countervailing measures outnumber those who would prefer Canada hold its fire by five to one.
Canadians are aware of the Risks
Support for Canada’s actions on the trade front isn’t without significant concerns about the impact that a trade war will have on various aspect of life in Canada. The Angus Reid survey reveals fears about economic impacts at all levels – national, provincial and local community. Almost half of Canadians are concerned about the impact on their incomes and about one quarter about their job security.
Longer term
Despite these concerns about the impact of Canada’s decision to leave the table and implement counter tariff’s, a clear majority of those polled say that Canada will adapt and get through this storm. This is in contrast to about a third who agree with the statement that this will cause lasting harm to Canada’s economy.
What it means
Two things stand out. The first is the breadth of the agreement: not a plurality, not a regional coalition, but a supermajority that survives every provincial cut. The second is that Washington’s own demands did much of the work. The bilingual packaging provision was read in Canada not as a trade irritant but as an intrusion — and the reaction it produced was national, not regional.