A new Pallas Data poll, commissioned by the Pacific Conservative Foundation, finds the BC NDP maintaining a lead over the Conservatives, though the margin has narrowed since February. Among decided voters, the NDP has 44 per cent (-5 per cent since February), while the BC Conservatives have 39 per cent (-2 per cent). The Greens are at nine per cent (+1 per cent), and OneBC is at seven per cent.
“The race has tightened considerably since February,” said Dr. Joseph Angolano, founder and CEO of Pallas Data, in a news release. “But the choice of Conservative leader could be decisive if an election were to come in British Columbia in 2026.”
Conservative Leadership Race Wide Open
Among BC Conservative Party members and those interested in membership, the leadership race remains highly competitive. Aaron Gunn leads with 23 per cent, followed by Kerry-Lynne Findlay at 10 per cent, Peter Milobar at eight per cent, and Caroline Elliott at eight per cent. However, 44 per cent remain undecided.
Regional Splits Favour NDP in Metro Vancouver
The NDP maintains a seventeen-point lead in Metro Vancouver (49 per cent to 32 per cent among decided voters) and a sixteen-point lead on Vancouver Island (43 per cent to 27 per cent). The Conservatives lead in the Rest of BC (48 per cent to 36 per cent).
The NDP performs significantly better among women voters (52 per cent to 33 per cent) than men (36 per cent to 45 per cent). The Conservatives lead among voters 50-64 (44 per cent to 38 per cent) but trail among seniors 65+ (50 per cent to 34 per cent).
Methodology:
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 11th-13th, 2025 among a sample of 923 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia and are eligible to vote in provincial elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on landlines and cellular phones. The sample was weighted by age, gender, and region according to the 2021 Census. The survey is intended to represent the adult population in British Columbia.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.2 per cent, at the 95 per cent confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up to 100 per cent due to rounding.