For almost a quarter century, Prince George voters have sent exclusively BC Liberals to Victoria.
From Shirley Bond, Pat Bell, and Paul Nettleton in 2001 to, yes, John Rustad in 2005, to Mike Morris in 2013, they’ve all been BC Liberals. (BC United, which the Liberals morphed into in 2023, never contested an election.)
With no disrespect to the representation the community has had over the years, Roy Spooner and I often mused over whether the city would be better served if MLA came from different parties. The rationale being that party leaders and/or Victoria might pay more attention to the city if they thought it was ‘in play,’ i.e. they might lose and/or gain a riding in the next election. In addition, regardless of who wins provincially, the city will have an MLA in government.
Well, after 25 years that split may actually happen. In fact, is likely to happen. We could very likely end up with a Conservative MLA, an NDP MLA, and an independent MLA representing the city.
Let’s look at Prince George-North Cariboo first. It is primarily a Quesnel riding, however much of lower College Heights was added to the riding this time around.
My money is on incumbent Coralee Oakes to hold onto the riding, even though she is running as an independent. Oakes, of course, was a BC Liberal/BC United MLA before the great dissolve. Either Conservative leader John Rustad didn’t ask her to run as a Conservative, or she chose not to. Either way, she’s running as an independent.
Independents generally have a tough time getting elected as they are usually not-affiliated with a party or, more likely, turfed from or quit an established party. It’s different this time around as Oakes, and a hand of other BC United MLAs, were abandoned by the party, not the other way around.
Oakes, elected twice in the North Cariboo riding, is a known and popular MLA in Quesnel. Voters there are likely to stay with her, as I don’t believe there are enough votes in College Heights to swing make it more of a Prince George riding.
In Prince George-Mackenzie, the riding would have been lock for Kiel Giddens under the BC United banner, which he started out with. Rustad wisely invited Giddens into the fold as he is much more electable than Rachael Weber, whom Rustad turfed as is now running as an independent.
Even with the criticism levelled at Giddens, a more moderate candidate, that he is now roosting with more extreme bedfellows, my money is on him to take the riding. NDP candidate Shar McCrory will get the party’s traditional 30-35 per cent of the vote, but Weber and Green Party candidate James Steidle won’t be able to pull enough votes to make a different.
Prince George-Valemount is the real interesting race.
I’ll say from the outset that if former BC United MLA Shirley Bond was running, even as an independent, she would win the riding … hands down. People in the riding voted for Shirley Bond more than they voted Liberal.
Even though Bond is not running in the riding, her impact will be felt. A lot of those people who voted for Bond ahead of the party, are not happy with how her political career came to an abrupt end.
They will have a tough time moving their vote over to the BC Conservatives, particularly after Bond decided not to endorse any party, a damning statement against Rustad if there ever was one. Will they move to the NDP and support candidate Clay Pountney? Some might, other might just spoil their ballot or decide not to vote.
BC Conservative candidate Rosalyn Bird has an impressive and extensive miliary history, which bodes well for her candidacy. But most of that work was done away from Prince George. She is relatively new to the area and, as such, is not well-known here (although that’s what campaigns are for).
Pountney, on the other hand, is the former chief of L’heidli T’enneh First Nation, so he is certainly more well-known than Bird and has deeper ties to the community. The question is how many of those who voted for Bond last time will abandon Bird and the Conservatives. My bet is a lot.
There you have it … a New Democrat, Conservative, and independent MLA. Only time will tell whether the city is better served.