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Centre-Left Scuffle: Conservatives maintain lead as Liberals struggle to lock in vacillating progressives

An inability so far in this 43rd election campaign for the incumbent Liberal Party to lock in left of centre voters is giving the Conservatives the widest lead they have seen since the writs were drawn September 11.

The latest public opinion poll from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute shows the CPC seven points ahead of Justin Trudeau’s party (37% to 30%). But digging deeper beyond these topline findings reveals the Prime Minister’s biggest headache is less likely to be Andrew Scheer than Elizabeth May, Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchett.

In a week that witnessed climate strikes across the country, the three leaders representing the most significant threats to the Liberal vote have had plenty of ammunition to play to environmental purists and attack Trudeau on his environmental record.

Still, voter uncertainty, especially among identified NDP and Green offers continuing – if not frustrating – flashes of hope for the party seeking re-election. The Liberals could win back progressive voters, especially outside Quebec. But they remain stymied in attempts to turn this jelly-like base into a more solid mould.

More Key Findings:

  • Uncertainty in terms of vote intention on October 21 is highest among NDP and Green voters. Only one-quarter of those who intend to support each party say they are absolutely certain they will do so. This, compared to seven-in-ten (68%) CPC supporters who say their support will not waver
  • The NDP, which has remained stubbornly in a distant third place appears to be emerging as the top second choice on among uncommitted voters. In fact, half of uncommitted Liberals (54%) and Green supporters (53%) say the NDP is their plan B
  • Check of battleground provinces reveals Green Party up slightly up in British Columbia (+3), CPC up in key battleground of Ontario (+3), and Bloc Quebecois making gains in all important Quebec (+4)

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