Skip to content

Close race gives CPC edge, but do Liberals stand to gain from shy voters?

The second week of Canada’s 43rd general election campaign rolls along with the Conservative and Liberal parties locked in a statistical tie.

The CPC, on the continued strength of its base and new data giving leader Andrew Scheer the lead on key leadership qualities, holds a three-point lead over the incumbents (36 per cent versus 33 per cent). All other parties trail at least 20 points behind.

That said, the latest public opinion survey from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute once again delves deep beyond the racehorse numbers to better understand what is happening with a still-volatile electorate fully five weeks before election day.

What the research finds is a hidden, but possibly burgeoning advantage for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, especially among those uncommitted voters who are considering – but have not yet fully committed to – the two leading parties.

Overall, among uncommitted voters considering both the CPC and the Liberals (15% of Canadians), it is Trudeau, that they lean towards on important leadership attributes, and ultimately choose when asked to pick the one party they’ll support on election day.

Further analysis of those leadership attributes yields some notable findings. Overall, among uncommitted voters, Trudeau is seen more than Scheer to be a democrat (89% to 78%), to be tolerant (94% to 78%), to be influential (80% to 56) and compassionate (78% to 57%). Scheer, on the other hand, is more likely to be seen as up to the job of Prime Minister (61% to 55%), honest (61% to 47%) and realistic (59% to 49%).

On the question of which of these two leaders would make best Prime Minister, however, Canadians are evenly divided: half say Justin Trudeau (50%). The other half say his main opponent, Andrew Scheer (50%).

More Key Findings:

  • Overall, 54 per cent of Canadians say that they have a party they will definitely support at this point in the campaign. The other half (46%) are currently still considering their options.
  • The Liberals hold an advantage among these uncommitted voters. Within this group, 40 per cent say they would vote for the Liberal Party in the coming election, while 23 per cent choose the CPC and 17 per cent choose the NDP.
  • Conservative voters are far more likely to say that they feel this election is more important than 2015 and that there is a lot at stake on October 21, compared to supporters of the other parties.


Read the rest of the story here: www.angusreid.org/election-september-2019

What do you think about this story?