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Alberta Election: UCP holds commanding lead as campaign begins

The provincial election campaign in Alberta begins with the New Democratic Party trailing the opposition United Conservative Party by a wide margin, according to new public opinion polling data analyzed by the non-profit Angus Reid Institute and donated by Angus Reid Global Public Affairs.

During the period of fielding, respondents were asked how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow. Their answer: the UCP capturing a majority of the decided and leaning vote (56%), with the NDP receiving 31 per cent.

However, the parties find themselves in a statistical tie in Edmonton, where the NDP garners 45 per cent of vote intention and the UCP 44 per cent. The New Democrats also lead among younger Albertans (46% versus 38% for the UCP among 18-34-year-olds), while the United Conservatives lead in every other region and demographic.

Underlying these trends is a deep dissatisfaction with the Notley government’s performance over the past four years, particularly on economic issues such as management of the oil and gas industry.

More Key Findings:

  • Six-in-ten Albertans (60%) are dissatisfied with the current provincial government overall, including 43 per cent who say they are “very dissatisfied”
  • Slight majorities feel the Notley government has done a good job on issues related to health care (54%), and education (52%), while larger majorities say the government has done poorly on the economy (66% say this) and managing natural resources (64%)
  • Notley’s government is seen to be doing worst on the issues Albertans rank as most important to them. Half (49%) rank energy, oil and gas, and pipelines as a top issue facing the province, and another four-in-ten (41%) choose “the economy.” By contrast, health care is a top issue for fewer than one-in-four Albertans (24%)

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