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If an election were held tomorrow, CPC could have a shot

The passage of time appears to have done nothing to soothe Canadian voters irritated with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau since his highly criticized passage to India last month.

This, combined with a simmering unease among the electorate over the federal government’s deficit spending has, for the first time, driven Trudeau’s disapproval rating north of 50 per cent.

All of this adds up to a ten-point gap between the Liberal and Conservative parties in vote intention. The latest polling analysis from the Angus Reid Institute shows that if an election were held tomorrow, the CPC – led by Andrew Scheer, would be in range to form a majority government.

The bleed away from the Trudeau Liberals includes not just vote intention, but perception of leadership. On a number of key metrics, including those that have traditionally been strengths for the Prime Minister, Scheer is seen as a better bet.

But with 18 months before an expected election, key areas of Liberal support remain solid. Millennials, many of whom turned out to the ballot box for the first time in 2015 principally because of Justin Trudeau, have not changed their minds about the leader – a majority (55%) still approve of him. And the party remains either in the lead or competitive in vote-rich urban centres, where a red surge pushed the Liberals to a 2015 majority.

More Key Findings:

  • If an election were held tomorrow, four-in-ten Canadians (40%) say they would vote for a CPC candidate in their riding. This represents a double-digit gap over those who say the same of the governing Liberal party (30%). Another 19 per cent of Canadians say they would support the federal New Democratic Party
  • For the fourth consecutive quarter the number of Canadians saying it is ‘time for a change in government’ has risen. The percentage of respondents holding that view is now up to 51 per cent
  • Conservative party leader Andrew Scheer is seen as the leader best suited to steward the economy. This, as government spending and the deficit have emerged as the top issues of importance in the country
  • While Justin Trudeau still holds an advantage over his counterpart Scheer on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister (26% to 22%), when Canadians are asked which party is best to form government his Liberals trail the CPC by 9 points (31% to 40%)
  • Ontario continues to be a driver of vote intention shifts in favour of the CPC. That party now holds a 12-point advantage in the region, thanks to a seven-point shift in their favour this quarter.

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