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Elections and other amazing predictions for 2019

It’s a New Year and that means it’s time for predictions.

What will the future hold for us? Well, fear not, all will be told here … cryptically, of course, and with caveats cleared by the best legal team this side of ICBC.

My first amazing prediction is that there will be at least one election this year, likely two.

The first one is easy. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has promised he won’t call a snap spring election so that means Canadians will go to the polls in October, unless … no, he wouldn’t break a promise, would he?

Now to the nitty gritty. I predict the Liberals will win another majority government, likely not as strong as the current one, but a majority nonetheless. Now, before the yellow-vested Trudeau haters add my name to their list of people to get the Ned Stark treatment after the election, let me explain.

I don’t think the Liberals will win a majority because they deserve one. Whether you support pipelines or not, the decision to buy the TransMountain Pipeline alone should be enough to send them to the backbenches. And that’s just one of a whole host of Liberal missteps over the past three years. However, the alternatives aren’t all that appealing.

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer, to quote the Conservative missive about Trudeau four years ago, “just isn’t ready.” He failed to boot Maxime Bernier out of caucus when he had the chance. That allowed Bernier to grab the spotlight and launch his own party, usurping the national spotlight during the Conservative Party convention. Ouch, that hurts.

Bernier says his People’s Party of Canada (worst name ever for a democratic party, best ever for a communist one) will run candidates in every riding in the country. His party won’t do much, though, other than draw votes away from Conservatives and that will help the Liberals.

When Thomas Mulcair won the leadership of the NDP, the knock against him was that he was no Jack Layton. Now, the knock against Jagmeet Singh is that he’s no Tom Mulcair. The NDP, who, historically, are forgiving of leaders who don’t win elections, unceremoniously dumped Mulcair after the 2015 election … a decision they will regret this October.

The best thing that could happen to the NDP is that Singh loses the Burnaby by-election, (if Trudeau ever calls one), and the party turfs Singh in favour of bringing Mulcair back or, even better, strong-arms Nathan Cullen into leading them into the October election. But they won’t and the battle cry for 2019 will be “NDP in 2023.”

OK, back to the second prediction. British Columbians will likely go to the polls this year as well. It won’t be because the NDP/Green alliance falls apart. Actually, the NDP/Green alliance should be used as a poster child for all parties who find themselves in a minority situation. The government won’t fall because of the Nanaimo by-election either. The NDP will win and keep the status quo in Victoria.

The furore over the removal of the Clerk of the Privy Council and the Sergeant at Arms will begin to bubble again very soon and I think the mess will result in Darryl Plecas resigning. He’ll either throw his hands up in disgust and walk away from his own mess or be forced to step down if his assertions aren’t as dastardly as he says. Or, if it’s as bad as he says it is, it could result in MLAs from all parties being forced to resign.

Either way, it’s bad news for the government.

There you have it, predictions for 2019 that you can take to the bank … if you want to lose your shirt.

Happy New Year.